An asymptotic formula for the Ramsey number R(3,k)

Find the constant c in R(3,k) ~ c·k²/log k; it is now known to lie between 1/2 and 1.

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State the problem, from Erdős Problems

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	1	+# An asymptotic formula for the Ramsey number R(3,k)
	2	+
	3	+How many vertices force a triangle-free graph to contain an independent set of size $k$? This Ramsey number $R(3,k)$ is known to be of order $k^2/\log k$, and since 2025 the lower and upper bounds differ only by a factor of $2$. Erdős asked for the exact asymptotics.
	4	+
	5	+## Problem
	6	+
	7	+Let $R(3,k)$ be the least $n$ such that every graph on $n$ vertices contains either a triangle or an independent set of $k$ vertices. Find an asymptotic formula for $R(3,k)$; that is, determine the constant $c$ (if it exists) with
	8	+
	9	+$$
	10	+R(3,k)=(c+o(1))\frac{k^2}{\log k}.
	11	+$$
	12	+
	13	+Erdős offered \$250 for this problem.
	14	+
	15	+## Background
	16	+
	17	+Determining even the order of magnitude of $R(3,k)$ took decades: Ajtai, Komlós and Szemerédi (1980) proved the upper bound $O(k^2/\log k)$, and Kim (1995) proved a matching lower bound. Upper bounds come from lower bounds on the independence number of triangle-free graphs: Shearer showed that a triangle-free graph on $n$ vertices with average degree $d$ has an independent set of size at least $(1+o(1))\,n\log d/d$. Lower bounds come from random constructions of triangle-free graphs, such as the triangle-free process, which adds random edges one at a time as long as no triangle is created.
	18	+
	19	+## What is known
	20	+
	21	+- Upper bound. Shearer (1983) proved $R(3,k)\le(1+o(1))k^2/\log k$, improving the constant of Ajtai, Komlós and Szemerédi; it is still the best upper bound.
	22	+- Lower bounds. Kim (1995) proved $R(3,k)\ge(c+o(1))k^2/\log k$ with $c=1/162$. The analysis of the triangle-free process by Bohman and Keevash (2021) and, independently, Fiz Pontiveros, Griffiths and Morris (2020) gave $c=1/4$; the latter conjectured that $1/4$ is sharp. Campos, Jenssen, Michelen and Sahasrabudhe (2025) disproved this with $c=1/3$, and Hefty, Horn, King and Pfender (2025) reached $c=1/2$.
	23	+- Both 2025 papers conjecture that $1/2$ is the correct constant, so the conjectured formula is $R(3,k)\sim k^2/(2\log k)$. The proof of the $1/2$ bound has since been formalised in Lean ([formalisation](https://github.com/wpegden/twobites), 2026).
	24	+
	25	+## What would count as progress
	26	+
	27	+- An upper bound $R(3,k)\le(1-\varepsilon+o(1))k^2/\log k$ for some fixed $\varepsilon>0$, the first improvement on Shearer's bound.
	28	+- A lower bound with a constant above $1/2$, which would refute the current conjecture; constructions can be tested on moderate $k$ by computing independence numbers.
	29	+- A matching upper and lower bound, which would solve the problem.
	30	+
	31	+## References
	32	+
	33	+1. M. Ajtai, J. Komlós and E. Szemerédi, A note on Ramsey numbers, J. Combin. Theory Ser. A 29 (1980), 354–360. [doi:10.1016/0097-3165(80)90030-8](https://doi.org/10.1016/0097-3165(80)90030-8)
	34	+2. J. B. Shearer, A note on the independence number of triangle-free graphs, Discrete Math. 46 (1983), 83–87. [doi:10.1016/0012-365X(83)90273-X](https://doi.org/10.1016/0012-365X(83)90273-X)
	35	+3. J. H. Kim, The Ramsey number $R(3,t)$ has order of magnitude $t^2/\log t$, Random Structures Algorithms 7 (1995), 173–207. [doi:10.1002/rsa.3240070302](https://doi.org/10.1002/rsa.3240070302)
	36	+4. T. Bohman and P. Keevash, Dynamic concentration of the triangle-free process, Random Structures Algorithms 58 (2021), 221–293. [doi:10.1002/rsa.20973](https://doi.org/10.1002/rsa.20973)
	37	+5. M. Campos, M. Jenssen, M. Michelen and J. Sahasrabudhe, A new lower bound for the Ramsey numbers $R(3,k)$ (2025). [arXiv:2505.13371](https://arxiv.org/abs/2505.13371)
	38	+6. Z. Hefty, P. Horn, D. King and F. Pfender, Improving $R(3,k)$ in just two bites (2025). [arXiv:2510.19718](https://arxiv.org/abs/2510.19718)
	39	+
	40	+## Source
	41	+
	42	+Imported from [Erdős Problems 165](https://www.erdosproblems.com/165), curated by Thomas Bloom. Open according to the source as of 2026-10-20. The statement above is written in our own words; see the source for the original wording, history and discussion.